Hello Baseball Fans,
While it is the off-season and MLB’s Winter Meetings took place this week in Orlando, Florida, we wanted to take some time to look at the recent Hall Of Fame voting results. Congratulations to Jeff Kent, who earlier this week was elected to the hall via the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee (CBEC). Kent was a longtime power-hitting all-star second baseman for the Dodgers and Giants among a few others. The CBEC is the latest version of a veteran’s voting panel to ensure former players no longer eligible on the Baseball Writers’ ballot were not mistakenly overlooked. The current makeup is sixteen former players, all of whom are HOFers themselves, media and baseball historians, and MLB club executives. Twelve of sixteen votes from the panel are needed to receive an invitation to the hallowed hall in Cooperstown, N.Y.
This information is the background and motivation for what we really want to explore. While the ‘panel’ here at VFTD has not had a very favorable opinion on the HOF election chances of former New York Yankee and legendary slugger and first sacker, Don Mattingly, getting elected into the HOF, that does not mean we did not make an error just as the Baseball Writers may have when he was timed out of the general election in 2015. He was then removed from consideration. NOTE: Mattingly was first eligible in 2001 when he received his highest vote percentage of 28.2%, which is surprisingly low compared to both the great seasons he had and the required 75% of any given year’s vote to be enshrined.
Don Mattingly played the game of baseball at a high level. Offense and defense. Unfortunately, the game itself played high level injury tricks with his back and causing injuries as the root of his shorter-than-desired career. Back injuries and back pain. Difficult to overcome, obviously. However, he still played 1,785 games and logged over 7,003 at-bats and 7,722 plate appearances in 14 seasons. Coincidentally, these numbers are eerily similar to those of another multi-generational Yankee hero, none other than Joe DiMaggio, who played 1,736 games with 6,821 at-bats and 7,672 plate appearances. Who’d have thought that, right? That’s why we’re here!!
How do we rate guys like Mattingly? A great career shortened by injuries. How should we rate anyone regardless of length of career, the longtime 10-year minimum for HOF eligibility notwithstanding? And yes, the ten year value is fully supported by the VFTD staff. Always has, always will. Big questions like this one has answers inclusive of ‘counting’ stats like Home Runs, RBI, Wins, Saves and countless new ‘rate’ style numbers included in SABR-metrics.
Is there something that we can combine using a SABR-metric and make it a rate statistic? We think there is and it is very simple. If we sort the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) statistic from www.baseball-reference.com and make it a rate stat by simply dividing a player’s career WAR value by the total number of career games played, we can more easily sort and rank players. That could be an overstatement, but it at least puts it into a form that takes a career for what it is and not for the reasons why it was brief or the fact that it covered two plus decades.
We will need a name for this statistic, but first, here is the calculation: WAR divided by Career Games Played (WAR/G). This results in a funky decimal similar to 0.0200 for example.
It is a bit of an eye-sore to be polite. Therefore, we will multiply the result by 10 and it will appear similar to the common batting average and slugging percentages. Our 0.0200 becomes 0.2000. THAT is something we can relate to!!
And now we have a name (insert Rage Against The Machine lyric here for those of you familiar with the band’s ‘Settle For Nothing’ track). The name is WRT, which is WAR/Games Played and then multiplied by ten (War Rate times Ten). We can hear it now, “that guy’s ‘wart’ is off the charts this year!!”. Might be fun to say??
Before we look specifically at WRT and Mattingly, this touches on a similar topic we covered here back in 2024. We found a way to add more depth to OPS (on-base plus slugging percentages) by factoring in walks, stolen bases, and caught stealing attempts (article here: S.O.P.S. – VIEW FROM THE DISH). However, that is just for batters and not inclusive of the whole game. THIS is for ALL players including fan favorites like Donnie Baseball and others!!
Including Jeff Kent, there are currently 279 players in the HOF. There have been approximately 23,500 major league players in over 150 years of professional baseball. These guys really are the ‘one-percenters’ as that is just 1.18% of all of baseball. A small club!
Now we’re ready. Don Mattingly hit for a .307 average, belted 442 doubles, 222 HR, 1,099 RBI, 3 Silver Sluggers, 9 Gold Gloves, and logged 6 All-Star Games from 1982 to ’95. That’s a lot of hardware and winning! His career WAR is 42.4.
To help put that WAR value in perspective, we can look at a range of players. Thanks to our staffers here at VFTD, we know this: Of the top 250 all-time leaders in WAR, their average value is 80.3, and 166 of them are in the HOF. And when we go further, the top 400 in WAR have an average of 73.9 and 212 of them are enshrined in the hall. The aforementioned Joe D. had very similar games played and at bats as Don Mattingly. His WAR? A whopping 79.1 compared to Mattingly’s 42.4. This puts their WRT’s at 0.455 and 0.237, respectively.
Even with Joe D. being a legend of legends status, this does not bode well for Donnie. A quick glance at some other big time legends looks like this for WRT: Lou Gehrig 0.525, Frank Robinson 0.381, Willie Mays 0.519, Ted Williams 0.531, Mickey Mantle 0.459, Barry Bonds 0.545, Mike Trout .530, and Mookie Betts 0.491.
These guys are monsters! And that’s ok. It’s even a good thing. We’ve always looked at HOF and how many votes it took for a player to get in as a way of ranking the best of the best. They’re the greatest of greats as there is room within the hall (or museum since not all greats are in) to have your starters stated among the greats. Babe Ruth has a 0.729 WRT. That is INCREDIBLE!
Donnie Baseball. Nine gold gloves. He won NINE Gold Gloves!! That is ridiculous in 12 full seasons (his first 2 were limited games played as he established himself with the big club). Granted, the Gold Glove awards did not start until 1957, but we have a ton of history even with that and there has only been 23 players to win at least nine GG. PLUS, Donnie is 2nd all-time at First Base as only Keith Hernandez’s 11 are better at first base.
This is where the zoom-in analysis should favor Don Mattingly. We know he had major injuries. Importantly, we know he was in his prime when they struck. We know his stats are still very impressive given all that. And we know he averaged a .327 batting average and .900 OPS for six seasons before his back betrayed him. AND he snagged 5 of his nine GG, all 3 of his SS, and the ’85 American League MVP award in this same span!! Mattingly’s career batting average of .307 is tied for 132nd best all-time. His totals for hits, total bases, RBI, and OPS range from 208th best to 280th best all-time. That is impressive since that covers all aspects of batting!
Overall, this bodes very well for a guy who didn’t play as much as many other stars. PLUS, he smacked those 442 doubles, which is tied for 121st. His OPS is ahead of Hall of Famers such as Dave Winfield, Joe Mauer, Ron Santo, Bobby Doerr, Rod Carew, and Harold Baines. His WRT is not the greatest but also not the worst either. Going back to Jeff Kent, his WRT is very similar at 0.241 to Mattingly’s 0.237.
While we think WRT can very helpful in providing perspective to career WAR totals and helping to rank greatest of greats, we also know that one aspect of counting stats, SABR stats, or looking at solely a short stint of domination without accounting for other non-statistical factors can not be the best path for determining status to Cooperstown. It takes a great combination of all of the above to achieve vote worthiness. When all factors are considered including dominance on both sides of the ball, we here at VFTD believe Don Mattingly Matters when it comes to the Hall of Fame. Therefore, he SHOULD get in next time he is eligible from CBEC group in 2028. This month, he only received 6 votes when 12 is needed, which is a huge surprise. This is alarming, but since Kent got in, we think it will be corrected as the committee will likely gain more of Mattingly’s contemporaries in years to come. This does not diminish anything as far as process or current HOFers, rather it indicates a more thorough process which takes time.
You heard it here first, it will be Don Mattingly’s time. Soon.
Later Baseball Fans.